Probabilities Excel Sheet

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    • Probabilities Excel Sheet

      I have made an Excel Sheet that gives you the probability of rolling a particular dice combination.

      So far, it only gives you the probability of getting a particular combination for one six-dice roll only. I may update the sheet in the future to cater for the fact that one may, of course, keep certain dice and reroll the rest, up to two or three times. You can understand, however, that this is not a simple calculation to perform. For now, you have this, which, in my opinion, is still quite nice.

      A short overview of how this works follows. When the sheet starts, all the six dice are blank and the probability is 100%. This is because, in this sheet, a blank dice signifies that that dice can be any one of R (Red), S (Sword), B (Blue) or Y (Yellow).

      If you now input an R (or select R from the drop-down menu) in one of the six dice, the probability changes to 91.221%. This means that the probability of getting at least one R in your initial six dice roll is 91.221%. Note that doing so in any of the six dice slots works; you don't necessarily need to do this in the first dice slot.

      But now suppose you want the probability of getting exactly one R in your initial dice roll. To obtain that probability, you'll need to click on the box below 'Exactly R' and enter 'Yes'. (You can also select 'Yes' from the drop-down menu.) The probability now changes to 26.337%. That's the probability that your initial dice roll has exactly one R.

      Okay, now suppose you want RRB (two Rs and one B) in your initial dice roll, but you don't want any S being any of the other three dice either. You type 'R', 'R' and 'B' as your dice, then click on the box below 'Exactly S' and enter 'Yes'. Since we have no S dice, this signifies that we want exactly no S in our dice rolls. The probability changes to 6.284%. If you actually want exactly one B, or exactly two Rs, make 'Exactly B' or 'Exactly R' Yes accordingly.

      I hope that the above was clear. Feel free to ask me questions so that I can clarify.

      The sheet is protected with a password. If you want to unlock the protection, so that you can play around with the Excel sheet, the password is 'combs'. Don't break its functionality though. :)

      Hope you like it. Depending on the feedback I receive, I may attempt to improve on this sheet.

      Download the Excel sheet here: combs.zip
    • Just a quick question : did you use mathematical probability for 6 face dice or
      actual rolls that dice give ?

      Seems to me they are far from same as 6 dice should roll RRSSBY most often and it
      should be most common roll (Automata perfect roll * *) but it's not like that in
      practice <sigh>

      Still love the fact that someone is at least thinking about this as it's more than 50 % factor
      for loss or victory in this game ...
    • True so if you multiply that by x 6 than at least one should roll blue and and should
      roll blue or yellow.Real dice probably won't do that either but I'm big believer in
      correction in algorhytm and preferebly in same fight (both roll bad).It's pretty balanced
      now though but if you don't play high risk high reward cards you will face them
      and they will have perfect rolls.If both players do it's near 50/50.

      But I digress , it's 4/6 or 2/3 chances for each dice to roll sword or red but it's also
      1/3 to roll blue or yellow.And slightly less for it always to be blue blue or yellow yellow.
    • NemanjaS wrote:

      Just a quick question : did you use mathematical probability for 6 face dice or
      actual rolls that dice give ?

      Seems to me they are far from same as 6 dice should roll RRSSBY most often and it
      should be most common roll (Automata perfect roll * *) but it's not like that in
      practice <sigh>

      Still love the fact that someone is at least thinking about this as it's more than 50 % factor
      for loss or victory in this game ...
      Unless I'm wrong (in which case correct me), each dice has two R, two S, one B and one Y face. The probability for each dice is thus 1/3 to get R, 1/3 to get S, 1/6 to get B and 1/6 to get Y.

      For 6 dice, then, the most probable combination is AAAAAA where each A is either R or S.

      Regarding your last point, you're right. I'm new here, but I've learned that it's useless to have a Clover ex when you roll RBBYYS after 3 dice rolls. Perhaps I'm just unlucky.
    • NemanjaS wrote:

      No , I roll these rolls too , like I said it seems they are not all based on math probability
      but if you count 2/3 or 66.66666...% chance as 100 % then all we would see is red and
      swords.
      Indeed. Just because that's the most probable combination does not mean that it must happen. If that were the case, then nobody would ever play any lottery, as the odds are heavily stacked against you winning that lottery. On the other hand, somebody will end up winning the lottery.
    • You know, after a few more calculations, you're actually right.

      There are only 84 different six-dice roll combinations - a number which is much lower than I thought it would be. (Considering that each dice has 4 possible outputs and there are six dice, this number 84 is much lower than 4^6=4096, so many of these 4096 options are duplicates.) The most probable one out of all is RRBYSS, with 6.17%. There are six combinations that tie for the second most probable: RRRBSS, RRRYSS, RRRBYS, RRBSSS, RRYSSS and RBYSSS, all with 4.12% probability.

      NemanjaS wrote:

      Dice saver is something to study too , 6 rolls and you get RRBXXX as 1st roll but you end up with
      RRBBSS and you wanted RRRBBB.I would say reroll all 1st time is often good choice ...
      I suspect that rerolling everything is, at best, as good, probability-wise, as dice saving, and often it is worse. But I'm not 100% sure about this yet.

      The post was edited 1 time, last by xact ().

    • Those rolls you calculated actually come up more often when I think about it.

      Good job there and thanks a bunch ...

      As for for dice saver maybe I played 100 games too many :p but seems to me that
      best rolls come in 1st roll with you needing to reroll maybe one to red but if they
      come as something opposite on first 6 rolls are often not enough (need to check
      that more objectively) ...